Arctic sea ice extent, after rising alongside the winter season at an honest fee, out of the blue began shrinking at the start of March. The common Arctic sea ice extent in February 2022 was 14.61 million sq. kilometers (5.64 million sq. miles), rating fourteenth lowest within the satellite tv for pc report A marked unfavourable sea ice extent anomaly affected Antarctica, which set an all-time report low in 44 years of satellite tv for pc observations. A untimely warmth wave is now affecting the Arctic with doable early widespread melting throughout the Arctic Ocean.
ARCTIC SEA ICE FEBRUARY 2022
The common Arctic sea ice extent in February 2022 was 14.61 million sq. kilometers (5.64 million sq. miles), rating fourteenth lowest within the satellite tv for pc report. its extent was 13.88 million sq. kilometers (5.36 million sq. miles). After being properly throughout the interdecile vary in the entire winter, abruptly decreased within the final weeks in response to the Arctic Knowledge archive System, NIPR.
The interdecile vary is a measure of statistical dispersion of the values in a set of information. This implies though beneath common, it’s truly throughout the regular sea-ice inter-annual variability. The magenta line within the picture beneath exhibits 1981 to 2010 common extent for that month.
By most of February, the 2022 sea ice extent was 690,000 sq. kilometers (266,000 sq. miles) beneath the 1981 to 2010 common, though properly above the current 2010s common for many of the winter. Sea ice extent outlined the realm of the ocean with not less than 15% sea ice.
Within the picture beneath we are able to see the ocean ice extent on March 14th, 2022. The speedy shrinkage is clearly seen and offers the thought of how briskly the ocean ice is melting or transferring north because of storms within the space. This exhibits the big pure each day variability in sea ice circumstances, whereas the typical extent represents an essential indicator of present climate and doable suggestions within the upcoming Spring season.
Certainly, it’s not clear if the annual most has been already reached on the finish of February, primarily as a result of within the newest years it occurred fairly late in March. However, winter ice extent at this stage of the season is a weak indicator of what the ice extent will appear like in September after we will face the annual minimal.
Within the video we set beneath, you possibly can observe sea ice extent evolution within the Arctic in the course of the winter season 2021-2022, in addition to its evolution in February up to date each 5 days from February 1st to March seventh.
The second a part of the video above exhibits the 5-days sea ice quantity variability within the Northern Hemisphere, excluding the Baltic Sea and the Pacific. The information can be found due to the DMI’s mannequin calculations by way of the Polar Portal http://polarportal.dk/en/
At current, Arctic sea ice extent is without doubt one of the lowest ever noticed at this stage of the season, as it’s clearly seen within the picture beneath set by Zachari Labe. The yellow line exhibits how the each day extent misplaced roughly 0.4 million sq. kilometers within the final week.
Down right here we see the element of the primary half of March 2022. After being completely aligned to the last-twenty-years common, a pointy sea ice extent decline started on day 8 and proceed till the current state of affairs.
The picture, set by Zachari Labe, exhibits the cumulative change in Arctic sea ice extent for March 2022 (yellow line) up to date by way of 14 March 2022.
Arctic sea ice stays beneath regular within the Barents Sea, within the Greenland Sea, and within the Bering Sea, thus in all of the open-water sectors of the Arctic. It wasn’t like this in January when the Bering Sea sector remained properly above common for many of the month.
However, it’s price remembering how, due to a cool summer season and autumn this final season, the Arctic sea ice extent was among the many highest lately in November, significantly within the Western Ocean. A marked unfavourable anomaly as an alternative affected the Hudson Bay which remained solely freed from ice till December and delayed by greater than a month the same old see freezing.
Though sea ice was comparatively intensive in comparison with current winters, although remained comparatively skinny. That is essential in forecasting the evolution of the upcoming Spring and Summer season, ‘trigger skinny ice extra simply melts and breaks in comparison with thick and outdated multiannual ice.
Within the picture beneath we are able to see how the thinnest ice lower than 1 meters thick is definitely current in huge sector of the Hudson Bay, within the Baffin Bay west of Greenland, and within the Barents Sea and the Kara Sea between Svalbard and Russia
WHAT IS SEA ICE
Sea ice means all types of ice that type when seawater freezes. Sea ice that isn’t quick ice refers to float ice, and, if the focus exceeds 70%, it’s referred to as pack ice. When sea ice focus is decrease than 15% that is thought-about open water, and the boundary between open water and ice is named the ice edge.
Sea ice cowl within the Arctic grows all through the winter and peaks in March. In September the ocean ice extension reaches its minimal, which is mostly solely round one-third of its winter most. With a purpose to get a correct image of the ocean ice state, there’s the necessity of figuring out each extents and volumes. Such numbers primarily embrace the ice thickness, usually linked to the age of the ice. Within the picture beneath, Arctic sea ice climatology from 1981-2010 by the Snow and Ice Knowledge Middle, College of Colorado, Boulder.
As we acknowledged a couple of paragraphs above, winter ice extent is a weak indicator of what the ice extent will appear like this coming September after we will face the annual minimal. The seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice is characterised by the utmost annual extent in March, reducing by way of spring and summer season to an annual minimal extent in September.
Since 1979 it has been doable to watch sea ice by satellite tv for pc. At current, We’ve got 43 years of dependable data on the extent of the ocean ice cowl. The ocean ice had repeatedly diminished and significantly because the finish of the Nineties. However, the winter development is totally different from the summer season development.
Within the picture beneath the Arctic sea ice extent growth on the finish of the winter season (March most) and by the tip of the summer season (September minimal)
HOW WAS THE WEATHER LIKE IN THE ARCTIC IN FEBRUARY 2022?
Regional temperature distribution in February on the 925 hPa degree (about 2,500 ft above sea degree) within the Arctic ranged from 1 to over 8 levels Celsius (2 to 14 levels Fahrenheit) above the 1981 to 2010 common alongside the coast of Eurasia and throughout the central Arctic Ocean.
Cool circumstances prevailed over Canada and the Baffin Bay and right here the temperature was principally 2 to 7 levels Celsius (4 to 13 levels Fahrenheit) beneath common.
The picture beneath exhibits air temperature anomalies in levels Celsius within the Arctic on the 925 hPa degree. Yellows and reds point out increased than common temperatures; blues and purples point out decrease than common temperatures. The picture is NSIDC courtesy of NOAA Earth System Analysis Laboratory Bodily Sciences Laboratory
In February the ocean degree strain sample was characterised by sturdy and protracted low strain centered over the North Atlantic and excessive strain over central Asia. Each constructions, produced persistent air flows northward from Japanese Europe to the Arctic. That is per the noticed above-average temperatures there.
In North America, arctic air flew southward over jap Canada, bringing colder circumstances to the realm, as a result of low strain over the North Atlantic, extending over the Baffin Bay.
The final sample this 12 months was strongly influenced by an unusually sturdy polar vortex. The Polar Vortex throughout February and in early March is mostly very intense and chilly, as we are able to see from the next chart beneath. Nonetheless, essentially the most intense a part of its southern lobe shifted from North America in the direction of Asia and Europe in early March.
When wanting on the depth of the Polar Vortex, we verify the temperatures and their anomalies on the 10 hPa strain degree. That’s instantly throughout the stratosphere layer. This degree is positioned at round 30 kilometers altitude.
Temperatures within the core of the lobe from -65 to -75 °C had been detected, which is extraordinarily chilly even for these ranges and particularly for early spring. The temperatures throughout the Polar Vortex core are actually almost 30 °C beneath regular for this time because it shifted on the opposite facet of the hemisphere. Temperatures on the opposite facet of the vortex, exactly above Canada and Greenland, are extraordinarily hotter as is obvious from the picture beneath
The temperature anomaly there’s round 30 levels Celsius above regular for mid-March which is fairly excessive. Each collectively give a combo of a large dipole sample over the northern hemisphere.
THE POLAR VORTEX
In meteorology, the polar vortex is a semi-permanent low strain positioned simply above the north pole. It’s a massive area of rotating, chilly air that encircles each polar areas.
A number of meteorologists contemplate the polar vortex to be no extra and at least the imply zonal flux at excessive latitudes. This construction, flowing across the Earth, provides rise to a vortex (closed isobars, roughly round and concentric) when considered by an observer positioned simply above the Arctic.
The polar vortex is likely to be seen as a semi-permanent secure chilly circulation sample describing two distinct phenomena. The stratospheric polar vortex, and the tropospheric polar vortex.
The stratospheric polar vortex is a large-scale baric construction particularly energetic within the chilly, winter season. Excessive-speed cyclonically rotating winds are positioned between roughly 15 kilometers and 50 kilometers excessive. The stratospheric polar vortex strengthens and extends within the autumn and shrinks and fills within the spring. In summer season, the polar vortex is virtually absent as its autumn genesis is as a result of chilly air forming within the surrounding arctic areas.
The tropospheric polar vortex is as an alternative usually outlined as the realm poleward of the tropospheric jet stream, extending from the bottom as much as about 10-15 kilometers. In contrast to the stratospheric polar vortex, the tropospheric polar vortex exists all 12 months spherical. Short-term occasions can jeopardize its existence. For instance, the event of lobes that trigger it to shatter in the direction of the mid-latitudes may trigger intense chilly outbreaks in Europe or the U.S.
If the polar vortex weakens, the jet stream tends to be extra meandering. This enables the arctic chilly air to drop out of the blue in latitude affecting North America or Western Europe.
Generally the stratospheric vortex deepens downwards triggering a tropospheric vortex and the 2 baric figures can feed one another.
A measure of the depth of the polar vortex is given by the Arctic Oscillation. In flip, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has shut hyperlinks with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) positioned within the North Atlantic. The North Atlantic oscillation is a teleconnection index relying on variations within the atmospheric strain between Iceland and the Azores islands. Within the Pacific Ocean, The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is an oscillation of atmospheric strain and sea-surface temperature within the North Pacific Ocean that impacts, amongst different issues, winter temperature over most of North America.
The NPO is much like the NAO in having a low-index state and a high-index state. A low NPO index is related to southerly winds alongside the west coast of North America, which tends to deliver hotter air into the area. A excessive NPO index brings a northerly airflow, with the corresponding motion into the area of chilly, sub-polar air.
Figures courtesy of J. Wallace, College of Washington from the Nationwide Snow and Ice Knowledge Centre1.
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is presently optimistic and is predicted to stay impartial to optimistic by way of late-March with blended to principally unfavourable strain/geopotential peak anomalies throughout the Arctic particularly the North Atlantic facet of the Arctic and blended strain/geopotential peak anomalies throughout the mid-latitudes.
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be optimistic and is predicted to stay optimistic as strain/geopotential peak anomalies are predicted to stay unfavourable throughout Greenland the following two weeks.
Latest analysis has proven that the regional anomalies which are most extremely correlated with the power of the stratospheric PV are throughout the Barents-Kara seas area the place low Arctic sea ice favors a weaker winter PV.
Low sea ice within the Chukchi, Beaufort, and Bering seas could favor colder temperatures throughout North America however has not been proven to weaken the PV.
However, after a record-breaking season, the polar vortex is now weakening and the primary indicators of this is likely to be seen within the heatwave in impact within the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic today.
Within the picture above set by Zachari Labe, each day 2 m floor air temperature for the Arctic averaged above 80 levels north is proven. Particular person years from 1958 to 2020 are proven by the sequential blue/purple to yellow traces. 2022 is indicated by the crimson line. ERA40 has been utilized for the 1958-2002 climatology (white line), whereas the operational ECMWF is used for the present 12 months.
A most temperature of three.9 levels Celsius was recorded on the manned climate station Hopen in excessive Arctic Svalbard 76 levels north on March sixteenth. That is the very best temperature recorded at Hopen throughout March in response to Ketil Isaksen. Observations at Hopen began in November 1944.
Such a robust heatwave is triggered by each a deep low centered over southern Greenland and a robust excessive creating between Scandinavia and Siberia. The counterclockwise movement of air round a low is bringing temperate air into the central Arctic as we communicate.
The picture beneath exhibits the current state of affairs which truly opened a big hall of sturdy and delicate winds from the North Atlantic in the direction of the Arctic Ocean. The picture is offered by wxcharts and exhibits the geopotential anomaly at 500 hPa.
The result’s {that a} highly effective heatwave has developed in many of the Arctic with widespread above-average temperatures. The picture beneath exhibits the temperature anomaly at 2 meters peak in comparison with the 1979-2010 climatology.
We will see how in places very near the geographic North Pole, thus near 90 levels latitude, now we have temperature anomalies exceeding 20 levels Celsius.
This highly effective heatwave is generally affecting sectors of the Arctic characterised by skinny, seasonal sea ice, as we noticed above. With such intense heat anomalies now in impact, there’s a excessive likelihood the current abrupt melting that occurred in early March will proceed into the month, because the heatwave appears to not disappear in a couple of days.
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN ANTARCTICA
The Arctic and Antarctic are geographic opposites, and never simply because they stand on reverse ends of the Earth’s globe. Additionally they have reverse land-sea preparations. Within the Arctic, continents encompass an ocean, whereas in Antarctica the continent is surrounded by oceans.
These variations within the association of land and water contribute to variations in every polar area’s local weather, oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns, and sea ice.
Antarctic sea ice usually peaks in September or October and reaches a minimal in February. In some locations, sea ice melts utterly in the summertime. Within the NASA Earth Observatory maps beneath by Joshua Stevens, utilizing AMSR2 knowledge provided by GCOM-W1/JAXA, sea ice extent in Antarctica within the season 2015-2016
The chilly waters round Antarctica enable speedy sea ice formation in winter. At its most extent in September, sea ice cowl is round 16 million sq. kilometers or 6.2 million sq. miles, shrinking to about 2 million sq. kilometers or 0.77 million sq. miles in February. This can be a a lot bigger fluctuation than within the Arctic, the place the configuration of the continents encourages the retention of ice for longer durations.
Antarctica skilled undoubtedly hotter temperature in summer season 2021-22. As a consequence, on the finish of February sea ice extent was the bottom within the 44-year report. The picture beneath exhibits the Antarctic sea ice extent on the finish of February, together with each day ice extent knowledge for 2021 and 2017.
In accordance with the Nationwide Snow and Ice Knowledge Middle of Boulder, Colorado’s sea ice extension on February twenty fifth was 1.924 million sq. kilometers or 0.742 million sq. miles whereas the earlier 2017 minimal was recorded on March third, 2017 with 2.110 million sq. kilometers or 0.811 million sq. miles.
Though February twenty fifth doesn’t symbolize essentially the most unfavourable anomaly of the report as a complete, it’s so for the tip of February when the same old annual climatic minimal happens. That is additionally clearly evident within the picture beneath which exhibits the Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies stretching from January 1979 to the present-day due to satellite-era, NSIDC, DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS. The anomalies are plotted by utilizing a five-day operating imply from the 1981-2010 climatological baseline and up to date to February twenty eighth.
Whereas total sea ice extent has solely barely elevated because the late Seventies, the speed of improve started to speed up in 2000, and ice extent reached a report excessive in 2014. However then one thing sudden occurred. It dropped drastically over the following three years, reaching a report low in 2017.
The year-to-year variability and the rise by about 1.7% within the extent of the Antarctic sea of 2000s ice have been properly noticed because the starting of the satellite tv for pc period, from 1978-79 to the current. Within the 2000s, a number of extremely optimistic anomaly peaks distinction with these negatives noticed within the final seasons.
In truth, when taking a look at this curve from a special perspective, we are able to see not less than three short-term traits. Within the picture beneath, redrawn from the unique one set by Zachari Labe confirmed above, we spotlight the current sea ice variability and brief traits. The gradual improve noticed within the 2000s, and significantly evident within the interval 2011-2015 when sea ice extent was considerably all the time above common, ended abruptly in 2016.
A speedy and intensive lower with large unfavourable anomalies peaked in 2017, and for about 4 years sea ice extent was repeatedly beneath the 1981-2010 common.
From 2017 on, a brand new gradual improve has been noticed, and in 2021 the ocean ice extent confirmed once more durations of optimistic anomalies. The three foremost unfavourable peaks occurred on the finish of 2016 and 2018, and in February 2022 in addition to the optimistic peaks, apparently comply with the identical rising development.
Each the Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice extent push the worldwide anomaly at -1.864 million sq. kilometers or about 0.720 million sq. miles. Within the picture beneath the present sea ice extent anomalies for the Arctic and Antarctic, supply NSIDC, DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS F-18 edited by Zachari Labe. Anomaly-based on 1981-2010 climatology
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