War in Ukraine is triggering a food crisis – and climate change has more in store

Russia’s war on Ukraine has thrust food security to the top of the global agenda. Now, the world’s leading climate scientists have piled on a stark warning: Unless we act fast, climate change all but ensures that food crises will become the norm and not the exception.

Combining severe shocks to global food system and a warming environment makes for a frightening and explosive combination. We are already seeing the effects of the conflict in Ukraine, which will almost certainly lead to a global food crisis that will have devastating consequences for the most vulnerable.

Both Russia and Ukraine are agricultural powerhouses and together account for almost a third of world wheat and barley exports. 45 African and less developed countries import at most a third of their wheat in Russia or Ukraine. 18 of these countries import more. If the war drags on, countries like Egypt could face food shortages as soon as this summer, triggering what the UN secretary general has warned could become “a hurricane of hunger and a meltdown of the global food system”.

Then there’s climate change. One of the most alarming findings in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) recent series of reports is that the climate crisis will increasingly undermine food security and nutrition around the world. The IPCC’s report on climate impacts confirmed that extreme climate events like floods, droughts, and storms have already exposed millions to acute food insecurity and malnutrition.

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Most alarmingly, the IPCC warns of climate extremes increasing the risk for simultaneous crop losses in key food-producing regions. This could have potentially devastating consequences for food availability and prices.

This is our new reality. The food and nutrition situation is steadily getting worse as the temperatures rise. It’s the frightening backdrop for the world’s geopolitical and economic developments – any crisis in a critical food-producing area could spell disaster on a global scale.

While it’s likely too late to prevent a food crisis in Ukraine, we can help those who are suffering now while working to aggressively reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and build resilience to future food shocks.

First, we need to respond to the increasing humanitarian crisis. The World Food Programme’s work is critical and should be fully funded, along with the full UN-wide response.

Second, governments should jointly identify the problems facing food security and coordinate their responses. When G7 countries gathered in Brussels in late March, they committed to acting in unison and called for an extraordinary session of the Council of the Food and Agriculture Organization to address the consequences of Russia’s invasion for global food security and agriculture. They should fulfill those commitments.

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Third, important ecosystems should not become farmland in order for Russia and Ukraine to export food. The EU is considering releasing fallow and conservation land in its emergency plan to increase grain production. The United States Department of Agriculture ruled in favor of allowing farmers to plant on land that is protected under its Conservation Reserve Program. Europeans should follow their lead.

Fourth, we can compensate for the loss of food production by reducing the amount of crops used as animal feed or biofuels. The U.S. consumes more than a quarter of the corn it produces in ethanol to blend with gasoline. The World Resources Institute estimated that by reducing the amount of grain used for transportation in the US, Europe and Asia by 50% this year, it could make up the difference in the shortage of Ukrainian wheat, corn and barley. Let’s prioritize growing crops to feed people, not produce fuel.

The same could be said for a shift to more sustainable diets. Around a third of the world’s cropland is used for livestock feed. Greenpeace estimates that reducing cereals used for animal feed in the EU by 8% would offset the expected production deficits in Ukraine. Reducing food loss and food waste, which account for a third or more of all food produced, can help increase food availability for human consumption.

Last but not least, we must align our global climate goals and food security goals. A changing climate will require resilience across food systems – from agricultural production to food consumption and waste disposal. At the same time, land offers opportunities to reduce greenhouse gases – from implementing farming practices that sequester carbon in soils to reducing agricultural methane emissions from livestock, rice production and food waste, and cutting nitrous oxide emissions from fertilizer overuse.

We are at an important moment. Making the right choices about food – especially the difficult ones – can help minimize human suffering. If our responses are not in line with our long term climate objectives, this crisis will not be the first.

Ryan Hobert is the United Nations Foundation’s managing director for climate change and environment.