After becoming dominant in the week prior to Christmas, the Omicron variant is rapidly spreading across the United States.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have stated that it is too soon to determine the full impact Omicron will have on deaths and other illnesses across the country. However, data from some of Omicron’s worst-hit cities is starting to show what the future holds.
Covid deaths in cities that were hit early by Omicron have started to spike
Death trends are sharply up in these three cities but are not approaching last winter’s peaks quite as fast as increasing case rates. Below is a chart showing how death rates have changed by three weeks to give you a better idea of the peaks or dips in deaths and cases.
New York City
Covid-19 cases and death
50
100% of last winter’s peak
21 days after death
Dec. 18 Cases
Sept. 1, 2020
Sept. 22, 2020
Dec. 18, 2021
Jan. 8, 2022
Boston
Covid-19 cases and death
50
100% of last winter’s peak
21 days after death
Dec. 17: Cases
Sept. 1, 2020
Sept. 22, 2020
Dec. 17, 2021
Jan. 7, 2022
Chicago
Covid-19 cases and death
50
100% of last winter’s peak
21 days after death
Dec. 17: Cases
Sept. 1, 2020
Sept. 22, 2020
Dec. 17, 2021
Jan. 7, 2022
Source: New York Times database with reports from state- and local health agencies.
Note: Death and case curves show seven-day averages. They scale to the highest number for each metro area between Sept. 1, 2020 to Dec. 1, 20,21.
In New York City, Boston and Chicago — cities with some of the country’s earliest Omicron surges — deaths have followed cases at a slightly reduced scale than in previous peaks. However, the extremely high death toll from Omicron surges in the United States has made it difficult to predict a lower death rate.
Hospitals are seeing more patients who have tested positive for Covid-19 in early-hit areas than ever before. Many patients who come to the hospital with other illnesses or conditions are tested positive for the coronavirus due to the Omicron variant’s infectiousness. Doctors have stated that patients with Covid as a primary diagnosis are doing better than in previous waves.
However, the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care or mechanical ventilation is at an all-time high. Hospitals are under tremendous strain due to the sheer number of patients.
Before the Omicron wave, healthcare workers quit their jobs in record numbers. Many more people are getting sick from the highly transmissible variant. Even if there are fewer staff available to care for them than usual, even a small number of patients can overwhelm emergency rooms and intensive care units.
New York City
Hospitalized Covid-19 patients
50
100
150% of last year’s peak
Hospitalized
In I.C.U.
Ventilated
Jan. 1, 2021
Jan. 6, 2022
Washington, D.C.
Hospitalized Covid-19 patients
50
100
150% of last year’s peak
Hospitalized
In I.C.U.
Ventilated
Jan. 1, 2021
Dec. 30, 2021
Chicago
Hospitalized Covid-19 patients
50
100
150% of last year’s peak
Hospitalized
In I.C.U.
Ventilated
Jan. 1, 2021
Jan. 6, 2022
Shows seven-day averages. Sources: New York State Department of Health. Government of the District of Columbia. Chicago Department of Public Health. The anomalies in Washington, D.C., intensive-care data have been remediated.
Those who have had vaccines have been far less likely than those who have not been vaccinated to be admitted with severe Covid-19. Early data from New York City shows that the vaccination gap in hospitalizations became even wider during the first weeks of the city’s Omicron surge.
Doctors say that patients who have been vaccinated are more likely to have milder diseases. However, Omicron patients who need intensive care are often unvaccinated or have compromised immune systems.
New York City
50
100 Covid-19 hospitalizations for every 100,000 people
Vaccinated
Unvaccinated
Oct. 9, 2021
Dec. 18, 2021
Data are age adjusted. Recent data could be incomplete. Source: New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.
Covid-19 can cause severe illness in older people who have not been vaccinated. C.D.C. estimates that about 12 percent of Americans over 65 are not fully vaccinated. data. Many areas of the country where this rate is highest are also places where surges fueled in part by the Omicron variant haven’t yet begun or are just beginning. These places include parts of the Midwest, the Mountain West, and more rural areas throughout the country.
Estimated unvaccinated percentage of residents 65 years and older
Source: NY Times