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Home Coronavirus

Early Data Hints at Omicron’s Potential Toll Across America

January 9, 2022
Reading Time: 213 mins read
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After becoming dominant in the week prior to Christmas, the Omicron variant is rapidly spreading across the United States.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have stated that it is too soon to determine the full impact Omicron will have on deaths and other illnesses across the country. However, data from some of Omicron’s worst-hit cities is starting to show what the future holds.

Covid deaths in cities that were hit early by Omicron have started to spike

Death trends are sharply up in these three cities but are not approaching last winter’s peaks quite as fast as increasing case rates. Below is a chart showing how death rates have changed by three weeks to give you a better idea of the peaks or dips in deaths and cases.

New York City
Covid-19 cases and death

50

100% of last winter’s peak

21 days after death

Dec. 18 Cases

Sept. 1, 2020

Sept. 22, 2020

Dec. 18, 2021

Jan. 8, 2022

Boston
Covid-19 cases and death

50

100% of last winter’s peak

21 days after death

Dec. 17: Cases

Sept. 1, 2020

Sept. 22, 2020

Dec. 17, 2021

Jan. 7, 2022

Chicago
Covid-19 cases and death

50

100% of last winter’s peak

21 days after death

Dec. 17: Cases

Sept. 1, 2020

Sept. 22, 2020

Dec. 17, 2021

Jan. 7, 2022

Source: New York Times database with reports from state- and local health agencies.

Note: Death and case curves show seven-day averages. They scale to the highest number for each metro area between Sept. 1, 2020 to Dec. 1, 20,21.

In New York City, Boston and Chicago — cities with some of the country’s earliest Omicron surges — deaths have followed cases at a slightly reduced scale than in previous peaks. However, the extremely high death toll from Omicron surges in the United States has made it difficult to predict a lower death rate.

Hospitals are seeing more patients who have tested positive for Covid-19 in early-hit areas than ever before. Many patients who come to the hospital with other illnesses or conditions are tested positive for the coronavirus due to the Omicron variant’s infectiousness. Doctors have stated that patients with Covid as a primary diagnosis are doing better than in previous waves.

However, the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care or mechanical ventilation is at an all-time high. Hospitals are under tremendous strain due to the sheer number of patients.

Before the Omicron wave, healthcare workers quit their jobs in record numbers. Many more people are getting sick from the highly transmissible variant. Even if there are fewer staff available to care for them than usual, even a small number of patients can overwhelm emergency rooms and intensive care units.

New York City
Hospitalized Covid-19 patients

50

100

150% of last year’s peak

Hospitalized

In I.C.U.

Ventilated

Jan. 1, 2021

Jan. 6, 2022

Washington, D.C.
Hospitalized Covid-19 patients

50

100

150% of last year’s peak

Hospitalized

In I.C.U.

Ventilated

Jan. 1, 2021

Dec. 30, 2021

Chicago
Hospitalized Covid-19 patients

50

100

150% of last year’s peak

Hospitalized

In I.C.U.

Ventilated

Jan. 1, 2021

Jan. 6, 2022

Shows seven-day averages. Sources: New York State Department of Health. Government of the District of Columbia. Chicago Department of Public Health. The anomalies in Washington, D.C., intensive-care data have been remediated.

Those who have had vaccines have been far less likely than those who have not been vaccinated to be admitted with severe Covid-19. Early data from New York City shows that the vaccination gap in hospitalizations became even wider during the first weeks of the city’s Omicron surge.

Doctors say that patients who have been vaccinated are more likely to have milder diseases. However, Omicron patients who need intensive care are often unvaccinated or have compromised immune systems.

New York City

50

100 Covid-19 hospitalizations for every 100,000 people

Vaccinated

Unvaccinated

Oct. 9, 2021

Dec. 18, 2021

Data are age adjusted. Recent data could be incomplete. Source: New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.

Covid-19 can cause severe illness in older people who have not been vaccinated. C.D.C. estimates that about 12 percent of Americans over 65 are not fully vaccinated. data. Many areas of the country where this rate is highest are also places where surges fueled in part by the Omicron variant haven’t yet begun or are just beginning. These places include parts of the Midwest, the Mountain West, and more rural areas throughout the country.

Estimated unvaccinated percentage of residents 65 years and older

Miss.N.C.Okla.Va.W.Va.La.Mich.Mass.IdahoFla.Neb.Wash.N.M.P.R.S.D.TexasCalif.Ala.Ga.Pa.Mo.Colo.UtahTenn.Wyo.N.Y.Kan.AlaskaNev.Ill.Vt.Mont.IowaS.C.N.H.Ariz.N.J.Md.MaineHawaiiDel.R.I.Ky.OhioWis.Ore.N.D.Ark.Ind.Minn.Conn.

Source: NY Times

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