While the U.S. 2021 corn and soybean crop estimates remain unchanged, this year’s Brazil soybean crop is getting smaller, according to the USDA.
Wednesday saw the release of USDA’s January Supply/Demand and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.
As a result, the CME Group’s soybean market moved lower then turned higher, corn lower, and wheat lower.
At midsession, the March corn futures are 3¼¢ lower at $5.97. May futures are 3¾¢ lower at $5.98. July corn futures are 3¾¢ lower at $5.96.
March soybean futures are 2½¢ lower at $13.84.
May soybean futures are 2¾¢ lower at $13.92. New-crop November soybean futures are 1¾¢ lower at $12.98.
March wheat futures are 13¼¢ lower at $7.57.
March soymeal futures are $2.00 more per short ton at $415.10.
March soy oil futures are 0.08¢ lower at 58.79¢ per pound.
The oil market outside the United States is $1.61 per bar higher at $82.83. The U.S. dollar has fallen and the Dow Jones Industrials is 35 points higher (+0.10%), at 36,287.
U.S. 2021/22 CROOP PRODUCTION
In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. corn production at 15.11 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 15.06 billion and the previous estimate of 15.06 billion bushels.
The U.S. corn yield average was pegged at 177.0 bushels per acre vs. the trade’s expectation of 177 bushels per acre and the USDA’s previous estimate of 177.0.
For soybeans, the USDA pegged output at 4.43 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 4.4 billion and the government’s November estimate of 4.42.
For yield, the soybean average is pegged at 51.4 bu./acre vs. the trade’s expectation of 51.3 bu./acre and the government’s previous estimate of 51.2.
USDA pegged the U.S. 2022 winter wheat plantings at 34.3 million vs. the trade’s expectation of 34.2 million acres.
2021/2022 WORLD-CROP PRODUCTION
On Wednesday, the USDA pegged the 2021 Brazilian soybean production at 139.0 mmt vs. the USDA’s estimate last month of 144.0 mmt. and the trade’s expectation of 141.6 mmt.
For corn, Brazil’s output is seen at 115 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 116.1 mmt. and the USDA’s December estimate of 118.0 mmt.
For Argentina’s soybean output, the USDA pegged its crop at 46.5 mmt. vs. the USDA’s December estimate of 49.5 mmt. and the trade’s expectation at 48.11mmt.
Argentina’s 2020/2021 corn crop is pegged at 54.0 mmt vs. the USDA’s previous estimate of 54.5 mmt. and the trade’s expectation of 53.5 mmt.
2021/2022 U.S. Stocks Ending Stocks
The USDA pegged U.S. corn new-crop ending stocks to 1.54 billion bushels, compared to the trade estimate of 1.47 Billion bushels and the December estimate at 1.49 Billion bushels.
For soybeans, the U.S. ended stocks were 350 million bushels. This is in contrast to the trade that predicted that the USDA would print 348,000,000 bushels today. In December, the USDA’s estimate was 340 million.
In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 628 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 608 million and compared with the December estimate of 598 million bushels.
2021/2022 World Ending Stocks
On Wednesday, the USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 303 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 304 mmt. and the USDA’s December estimate of 305.4 mmt.
The world ending stocks for soybeans are 95.2 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 99.9 mmt. and the USDA’s December estimate of 102.0 mmt.
The USDA pegged wheat’s ending stocks at 280 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 278.5 mmt. and the USDA’s previous estimate of 278.1 mmt.
Quarterly Grain Stocks
For corn, the USDA printed stocks as of Dec. 1 at 11.6 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 11.6 billion bushels.
For soybeans, the USDA pegged the quarterly grain stocks at 3.14 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 3.1 billion bushels.
The USDA sees the U.S. wheat quarterly grain stocks at 1.39 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 1.40 billion bushels.
Trade Reaction
Peter J. Meyer, S&P Global Platt’s head of grain and oilseed analytics, says that USDA offered very little new information.
“Pretty ho-hum report. It should have been expected, considering that planting and harvest were early last year. Therefore, the data that NASS gathered was more mature than usual by November. There were no surprises in South American production forecasts, but cuts were to be expected. For now, we need to keep an eye on weather in Brazil and Argentina because the USDA didn’t give us anything new today,” Meyer says.
Teucrium Trading’s Sal Gilbertie said that the USDA provided very little information.
“Not really any surprises other than official confirmation that wheat is pricing itself out of feed rations. The soybean markets are being supported by slightly tighter soybean numbers than anticipated. South American weather will continue to be the focus of traders for the next several weeks,” Gilbertie says.
Source: Successful Farming
